Vacation rental homes in the Kissimmee corridor, Florida

For out of state investors

The bear case first. Then where the leverage actually is.

If I only showed you the good news you would be right not to trust me. So here is the strongest argument against buying in Florida right now, stated fairly, before I tell you what I think about it.

The case against Florida, made properly

Four arguments, each stated at its strongest. My answer to all four is underneath them.

Migration has collapsed

This is the strongest bear argument and the one most people skip. Net domestic migration into Florida is down roughly 93% from its pandemic peak, the lowest in about fourteen years. Before the pandemic Florida was genuinely affordable on a $50,000 to $60,000 income. Now it takes close to double that. The engine that justified the price level has largely switched off.

Condos are in real trouble

Florida condo values have fallen close to 10% year over year, the worst since 2009, driven by insurance costs and post-Surfside structural assessments that can run into six figures per unit. Some Gulf coast markets are down 12% to 18%. This is not a blip and it is not over.

Prices are arguably overvalued

Reventure's Nick Gerli, the most prominent bear on this market, puts national home prices around 30% above what fundamentals support, and forecasts further declines in Florida specifically. He has been directionally right about Southwest Florida.

Insurance is still the wildcard

Rates finally fell in 51 of 67 Florida counties in 2026 and Citizens cut an average of 8.7%, which is genuine improvement. But published statewide average premiums range from under $3,000 to over $10,000 depending on who is measuring and what coverage they assume. Anyone quoting you one confident number is not being careful.

Overlooking Lake Tohopekaliga in Kissimmee, Florida

Vacation rental homes in the Kissimmee corridor

Townhomes and condominiums in Kissimmee, Florida

Kissimmee, Florida, in the vacation rental corridor southwest of Disney: one of the softest markets in the state and one of the strangest to read.

Now here is my answer to it

Every one of those points is about Florida as a whole. Almost none of them is about any particular ZIP code, and that distinction is the entire investment thesis.

The migration argument is a demand argument. It says fewer people are choosing Florida. Fine. But demand is not evenly distributed. Billions of dollars of committed capital land in specific Florida ZIP codes between now and 2030: a theme park that already opened, thousands of energy jobs relocating, a semiconductor plant paying engineer wages in a county that has always paid hospitality wages, hospital towers, port and rail investment, a rocket factory on the Space Coast at an average salary near $98,000.

Those are localized demand injections and they land in places you can name. That is what neither the national bear case nor the local cheerleading accounts for. The job of this platform is to tell you which ZIP code sits under which one.

This is my professional judgment from working this market, not a measured statistic.

Where buyers have the most leverage right now

The softest ZIP codes in Florida, scored against their own pre-pandemic normal. These carry the most supply, the longest waits, and the most negotiating room.

Click any number to open the chart behind it. Click the ZIP code for the full breakdown.

ZIP	Area	Market
33851	Lake Hamilton, FL · Polk	Market 3 · Soft
34762	The Villages, FL · Lake	Market 3 · Soft
33430	Belle Glade, FL · Palm Beach	Market 3 · Soft
33839	Eagle Lake, FL · Polk	Market 3 · Soft
33815	Lakeland, FL · Polk	Market 3 · Soft
33542	Zephyrhills, FL · Pasco	Market 3 · Soft
33619	Tampa, FL · Hillsborough	Market 3 · Soft
33128	Miami, FL · Miami-Dade	Market 3 · Soft
33850	Lake Alfred, FL · Polk	Market 3 · Soft
33976	Lehigh Acres, FL · Lee	Market 3 · Soft
33540	Zephyrhills, FL · Pasco	Market 3 · Soft
33810	Lakeland, FL · Polk	Market 3 · Soft

Source: Realtor.com Economic Research · Data through September 2026

FHA share by county, and why you should care

FHA is a government backed loan popular with first time buyers putting less money down. A county with a high FHA share is more sensitive to interest rate moves, and its listings are more exposed to appraisal and property condition problems. It is also, consistently, where the softest markets are.

Source: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data via CFPB · 2025 originations. HMDA publishes at county level only, never by ZIP, and lags about a year

Right now Hendry County and Polk County sit at the top. Those are also among the counties carrying the longest days on market and the most supply, and that overlap is not a coincidence. It is why FHA share is one of the four inputs in the ZIP tool, and why it carries the smallest weight of the four: it can inform a call, and it should never flip one on its own.

Committed capital, not press releases

These are the Florida projects where money is actually allocated and work is underway or finished. Announced and proposed projects are listed separately, because I am not going to sell you a train that has no funding.

Kissimmee

Universal Epic Universe

About $7B

The largest new theme park in Orlando in a generation, plus three hotels.

Affects 32819, 32821, 32836, 34747

Randal Park

Orlando International Airport expansion

$5.9B ten-year capital plan

Florida's busiest airport is in the middle of a $5.9B decade of building.

Affects 32827, 32832, 32824, 32829

Downtown Orlando seen across Lake Eola, Florida

Orlando metro

AdventHealth Orlando campus rebuild

About $1B, including a $660M smart tower

The largest healthcare investment in the region's history.

Affects 32803, 32804, 32801, 32789

Riverfront homes and dense greenery, seen from above

Central Florida

Orange County Convention Center expansion

$560M

650,000 sq ft more space at the second-largest convention center in the country.

Affects 32819, 32821, 32809, 32837

St. Cloud

Sunbridge master-planned community

27,000 acres, up to 30,000 homes

A 27,000-acre, 30-year housing pipeline where Lake Nona's price-out goes.

Affects 34771, 34772, 32832, 34773

Orlando metro

Horizon West and Hamlin

23,000 acres, 200,000+ residents at build-out

The fastest-growing community in unincorporated Orange County.

Affects 34787, 34786, 34761

Orlando metro

Travel + Leisure Co. global headquarters

$36M+ capital investment

900 associates moved into the downtown core, and the building is open.

Affects 32801, 32803, 32804

Kissimmee

I-4 widening, Osceola Pkwy to Central Florida Pkwy

$2.4B

Six lanes to ten, including four express lanes, on the metro's worst bottleneck.

Affects 32821, 32819, 34746, 34747

Hyde Park and South Tampa

Tampa International Airport Airside D

About $1.52B

The airport's largest expansion in nearly two decades, and its new international gateway.

Affects 33607, 33614, 33634, 33609

Beachfront towers at Bal Harbour in Miami, Florida

Miami-Fort Lauderdale metro

Miami Worldcenter

About $6B

Twenty-seven acres and ten city blocks of downtown Miami, built as one plan.

Affects 33132, 33136, 33137

Fort Myers Beach and the islands beyond it, Florida, from above

Cape Coral-Fort Myers metro

Lee Health Fort Myers campus

About $824M

The largest healthcare construction project ever undertaken in southwest Florida.

Affects 33966, 33912, 33913

Punta Gorda

Babcock Ranch

Master-planned town, 19,500 homes at build-out

A solar-powered new town that is still adding several hundred homes a year.

Affects 33982, 33980, 33955

The Jacksonville skyline and its bridges over the river, Florida

Jacksonville metro

EverBank Stadium rebuild

More than $1.4B, of which $775M public and $625M team

A stadium rebuilt around the existing bowl, with the city carrying more than half the cost.

Affects 32202, 32206, 32207

The waterfront and historic architecture of St. Augustine, Florida

North and Northeast Florida

JAXPORT Blount Island modernization

About $250M of completed modernization, with further work underway

Container capacity up by roughly 150%, and the largest auto-handling port complex in the state.

Affects 32226, 32218, 32206

A Florida coastal city with its pier and palms, from above

Pensacola metro

Navy Federal Credit Union campus

About $1B in overall capital investment

The largest private-sector employer in the region, on a campus that keeps growing.

Affects 32526, 32506, 32514

See all 25 projects, including the ones I would not bet on

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The deal is made on the way in

Everything above is an average across a county. The Deal Line takes one specific property and the price being asked for it, and shows the entry band, what the rent has to cover, and the places where the data does not exist to answer you. Including the parts that argue against the deal.

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