For out of state investors
The bear case first. Then where the leverage actually is.
If I only showed you the good news you would be right not to trust me. So here is the strongest argument against buying in Florida right now, stated fairly, before I tell you what I think about it.
The case against Florida, made properly
Migration has collapsed
This is the strongest bear argument and the one most people skip. Net domestic migration into Florida is down roughly 93% from its pandemic peak, the lowest in about fourteen years. Before the pandemic Florida was genuinely affordable on a $50,000 to $60,000 income. Now it takes close to double that. The engine that justified the price level has largely switched off.
Condos are in real trouble
Florida condo values have fallen close to 10% year over year, the worst since 2009, driven by insurance costs and post-Surfside structural assessments that can run into six figures per unit. Some Gulf coast markets are down 12% to 18%. This is not a blip and it is not over.
Prices are arguably overvalued
Reventure's Nick Gerli, the most prominent bear on this market, puts national home prices around 30% above what fundamentals support, and forecasts further declines in Florida specifically. He has been directionally right about Southwest Florida.
Insurance is still the wildcard
Rates finally fell in 51 of 67 Florida counties in 2026 and Citizens cut an average of 8.7%, which is genuine improvement. But published statewide average premiums range from under $3,000 to over $10,000 depending on who is measuring and what coverage they assume. Anyone quoting you one confident number is not being careful.
The short-term rental corridor southwest of Disney: the softest market in the metro, and where the negotiating room is.
Where buyers have the most leverage right now
The softest ZIP codes in Central Florida, scored against their own pre-pandemic normal. These carry the most supply, the longest waits, and the most negotiating room.
| ZIP | Area | County | For sale | Days | Price cuts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33854 | Lakeshore, FL | Polk | 16 | 128 | 36.1% |
| 32163 | The Villages, FL | Lake | 122 | 69 | 22.5% |
| 33855 | Indian Lake Estates, FL | Polk | 30 | 70 | 19.6% |
| 33897 | Davenport, FL | Polk | 447 | 94 | 23.6% |
| 33853 | Lake Wales, FL | Polk | 71 | 79 | 20.4% |
| 33851 | Lake Hamilton, FL | Polk | 26 | 47 | 6.1% |
| 33825 | Avon Park, FL | Polk | 136 | 84 | 22.5% |
| 34753 | Mascotte, FL | Lake | 48 | 74 | 28.4% |
| 33896 | Davenport, FL | Osceola | 570 | 94 | 17.3% |
| 33805 | Lakeland, FL | Polk | 79 | 66 | 28.8% |
| 34772 | Saint Cloud, FL | Osceola | 307 | 64 | 22.1% |
| 33843 | Frostproof, FL | Polk | 55 | 78 | 25.1% |
Source: Realtor.com Economic Research · Data through July 2026
FHA share by county, and why you should care
FHA is a government backed loan popular with first time buyers putting less money down. A county with a high FHA share is more sensitive to interest rate moves, and its listings are more exposed to appraisal and property condition problems. It is also, consistently, where the softest markets are.
Source: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data via CFPB · 2025 originations. HMDA publishes at county level only, never by ZIP, and lags about a year
Notice that Polk and Osceola sit at the top. Those are the same counties carrying the longest days on market and the most supply. That is not a coincidence, and it is why FHA share is one of the four inputs in the ZIP tool.
Committed capital, not press releases
These are the Central Florida projects where money is actually allocated and work is underway or finished. Announced and proposed projects are listed separately, because I am not going to sell you a train that has no funding.
Universal Epic Universe
About $7B
The largest new theme park in Orlando in a generation, plus three hotels.
Affects 32819, 32821, 32836, 34747
Orlando International Airport expansion
$5.9B ten-year capital plan
Florida's busiest airport is in the middle of a $5.9B decade of building.
Affects 32827, 32832, 32824, 32829
AdventHealth Orlando campus rebuild
About $1B, including a $660M smart tower
The largest healthcare investment in the region's history.
Affects 32803, 32804, 32801, 32789
Orange County Convention Center expansion
$560M
650,000 sq ft more space at the second-largest convention center in the country.
Affects 32819, 32821, 32809, 32837
Sunbridge master-planned community
27,000 acres, up to 30,000 homes
A 27,000-acre, 30-year housing pipeline where Lake Nona's price-out goes.
Affects 34771, 34772, 32832, 34773
Horizon West and Hamlin
23,000 acres, 200,000+ residents at build-out
The fastest-growing community in unincorporated Orange County.
Affects 34787, 34786, 34761
Travel + Leisure Co. global headquarters
$36M+ capital investment
900 associates moved into the downtown core, and the building is open.
Affects 32801, 32803, 32804
I-4 widening, Osceola Pkwy to Central Florida Pkwy
$2.4B
Six lanes to ten, including four express lanes, on the metro's worst bottleneck.
Affects 32821, 32819, 34746, 34747
Buying from out of state?
Tell me your criteria and I will send you the county level read on where the leverage actually is, including the honest version of the short term rental corridor: the occupancy math, the showing problem, and the fact that Osceola, Polk and Orange counties have genuinely different rules and tourist taxes. Most out of state buyers find that out after closing. You should find out before.