What I am watching every week.

Indicator 1

Unsold active inventory, year over year

This is the single number I watch every week. Florida has now been below the prior year inventory line for 8 straight months, currently -9.6%. If that keeps going, this is a tightening market and the conversation starts changing meaningfully. If it flips back above the line and we start seeing more inventory than last year, that changes things too.

Indicator 2

The 30-year rate against the 6% line

What would make me more bullish is a rate below 6%. That provides real volume. Anytime the 30-year touches around 6%, the energy in this market ratchets up. It happened for a few days in February 2026 at 5.98% and the change was palpable. Buyers noticed and they moved. Today we are at 7.40%, and instability in global markets has kept borrowing costs elevated. Even with less inventory, buyers get less ambitious when money costs more.

Indicator 3

The vacation rental corridor southwest of Disney

Florida has several vacation rental markets and they all behave the same odd way. This is the one I work, so it is the one I will show you. If institutional and international investors start moving toward the exits, that hits supply fast and you see it in specific ZIP codes before you see it anywhere else. The tell is not price cuts. It is how long homes sit.

Indicator 4

How much of the active inventory is actually available

This one has no chart, because nobody publishes it. Inside every active inventory number are pockets of static supply: overpriced homes in good condition that have been sitting for months. They are counted as available. Functionally they are not.

Net those out and the genuinely buyable, sensibly priced inventory is tighter than every chart on this site suggests. That gap between what the data says and what buyers actually experience walking neighborhoods is the most important thing I can tell you, and it is the reason no dashboard is the whole answer.