Every chart, every source · Data through September 2026
The data, with every source and date shown.
No number on this page was typed in by hand. Every chart is pulled from a named public source on a schedule, and every chart tells you which source and how current it is. Where two sources disagree, I say so instead of picking the flattering one.
Where the country goes one way and Florida goes the other
Are there more homes for sale than a year ago, or fewer?
What it means: This is the single most important chart on the site. Nationally there are still slightly more homes for sale than a year ago, +5.4%. Florida has gone the other way hard at -9.6%, and has now been below last year's line for 8 straight months. Be careful with the Florida number though: a lot of that drop is sellers pulling homes off the market rather than buyers buying them.
Source: Realtor.com Economic Research · Data through September 2026
Every Florida metro, ranked
Is Florida one market, or twenty-three?
What it means: Twenty-three, and the spread is the point. Pensacola has seen listings contract the hardest at -48.9%, while Tallahassee sits at -11.0%. A collapse in listings is not strength. It usually means sellers gave up and pulled homes off the market, which leaves a buyer with less to choose from and less to negotiate over. A metro holding onto its supply is the more balanced place to transact, and balance is worth more to you than a headline.
Source: Realtor.com Economic Research · Data through September 2026 · Florida statewide highlighted, for scale
Are sellers listing, or holding?
New listings coming to market each month across Florida.
What it means: This is how you tell the difference between a market with no demand and a market with no supply. When new listings fall while homes keep selling, the shortage is coming from sellers choosing to stay put, usually because they are sitting on a mortgage rate they do not want to give up. That is what has been happening. It is also why the inventory drop above is not the good news it looks like at first glance.
Source: Realtor.com Economic Research · Data through September 2026
Homes for sale in Florida, month by month
The raw count, not the percentage.
What it means: Percentages hide the size of a market. This is the actual number of homes sitting available across the state. Worth remembering: not all of it is really for sale. A meaningful slice is overpriced inventory that has been sitting for months in good condition and is not moving. Net those out and the genuinely buyable, sensibly priced supply is tighter than this chart suggests.
Source: Realtor.com Economic Research · Data through September 2026
Homes going under contract
Pending sales across Florida since 2023.
What it means: Pending sales are the closest thing to a live pulse. A closed sale tells you what buyers decided 30 to 45 days ago. Pending tells you what they are deciding now. Watch this line against the mortgage rate chart further down and you will see how quickly buyer behavior responds to the cost of borrowing.
Source: Realtor.com Economic Research · Data through September 2026
Price cuts, measured against what was actually normal
Are sellers cutting price more than they used to?
What it means: Here is the correction almost nobody makes. The dashed line is what that metro's own price-cut share averaged in 2018 and 2019, before the pandemic, in a normal and healthy market. Compare today against that line rather than against a headline. When you hear that price cuts are climbing, ask the follow-up question: climbing compared to what? Compared to 2021, yes, but 2021 was not normal. Compared to a functioning market, most of Florida is close to ordinary.
Source: Zillow Research (blue, share of listings with a cut) and Realtor.com Economic Research (orange, price reduced share) · Data through September 2026 · The two publishers count this differently, so the levels differ. Both are shown rather than picking one
What sellers actually get versus what they ask
The sale-to-list ratio, by metro.
What it means: This is the only sold-side number in the whole system, and it is published by metro rather than by ZIP code, which is why the paid reports anchor to the metro a property is actually in. Sellers capturing 98 cents on the dollar did not get there by pricing high and negotiating down. They got there by pricing into the market on day one. That difference in strategy is the difference between sold and sitting.
Source: Zillow Research · Data through June 2025
The 30-year mortgage rate
What is the cost of borrowing doing?
What it means: This is the other number I watch every week. Anytime the 30-year rate touches around 6%, the energy in this market ratchets up fast. It happened for a few days in February 2026, when it hit 5.98%, and the change was palpable. Buyers noticed and they moved. Today it is around 7.40%. Even with less inventory, buyers get less ambitious when borrowing costs more. A sustained move below 6% would change this market meaningfully.
Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey via FRED · Data through October 2026
Home values since 2000
What has actually happened to prices over a quarter century?
What it means: Zoom out and the last few years look less like a catastrophe and more like a very steep climb that stopped. In every Florida metro you can see the 2006 bubble, the crash that followed, the long slow recovery, and then the pandemic spike that pulled roughly a decade of appreciation into two years. Prices have flattened since. Flat is not falling. If you bought before 2021 you are still far ahead. What differs by metro is how violent the 2006 to 2011 swing was, and the coastal southwest is the clearest example.
Source: Zillow Home Value Index · Data through February 2004
Are people still moving to Florida?
Population in the Orlando metro, as the one metro this series is published for.
What it means: Yes, but slower than the story suggests. Orlando added about 37,700 people in the most recent year, which was the tenth largest numeric gain of any metro in the country. That is real demand. But the growth rate has slowed every year since 2022. Be careful with anyone still calling anywhere in Florida the fastest growing metro in America. It is growing, it is not accelerating, and the difference matters when you are pricing a purchase.
Source: US Census Bureau population estimates via FRED · Data through January 2025 · Values are in thousands. Orlando only: this is the one metro the pipeline pulls a population series for. There is no 2026 estimate yet; the newest Census vintage is 2025
Where all of this comes from
Every source, with the date it last published. If something here goes stale, this table will show it rather than quietly serving you old numbers.
| Source | What it provides | Data through |
|---|---|---|
| Realtor.com Economic Research | ZIP level inventory, days on market, price cuts | September 2026 |
| Realtor.com Economic Research | National, Florida and metro comparisons | September 2026 |
| Zillow Research | Sale-to-list ratio, days to pending, long-run home values | August 2026 |
| Zillow Research, ZHVI | ZIP level home values back to 2000 | August 2026 |
| FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis | Mortgage rates, house price index, population | October 2026 |
| HMDA, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau | FHA loan share by county | December 2025 |
A note on honesty: two publishers can measure the same thing differently. Realtor.com and Zillow both report price cuts and get different numbers because they count different things. Rather than pick whichever looks better, both are shown and labeled. The same care applies to geography: every metro on this page is a federal statistical area, which is a set of whole counties and is often not the same footprint a local Realtor association reports. The Orlando metro, for example, is Orange, Seminole, Osceola and Lake counties. Sixteen Florida counties belong to no metro area at all, and those are read at ZIP and state level rather than being folded into a neighbour.